Although in the West, the news of this outbreak may seem half a world away, a look back at the history of the strain and where it may head in the future suggests that more attention needs to be paid to this isolated encounter.
I reached out to Dr. Gashnikova in the hopes of gaining some more insight into the situation in Siberia. She sent me a compilation of papers revealing just how problematic CRF02_AG/A might be and the need for worldwide attention.
The Siberian strain evolved from a well-known circulating strain of HIV-1, CRF02_AG, which had been first identified some 20 years earlier in Africa. Taxonomically speaking, CRF02_AG is comprised of a mixture of two specific subtypes (aka clades) of HIV-1: A and G. Within a few years of its discovery, it had become the most predominant strain in Africa and had spread to Central and South America, Central Asia and the Middle East. It had two characteristic traits other than its genetics: it was associated with a slightly lower human survival rate and it could be treated with anti-retroviral drugs.
But according to Gashnikova’s papers, the problem with the new CFR02_AG/A has little to do with these traits. Based on the research she and her colleagues at Vector have performed and published, this new strain is a rather mysterious villain that can spread silently and not reveal itself until it is too late.