OIL, GAS AND PUTIN’S AMBITION
Why has sovereignty over this region become such a highly contested issue? The answer—as is often the case in today’s world—involves natural resources. Immense oil and natural gas deposits have given increased value to the region. A 2008 U.S. Geological Survey reported: “These resources account for about 22 percent of the undiscovered, technically recoverable resources in the world. The Arctic accounts for about 13 percent of the undiscovered oil, 30 percent of the undiscovered natural gas, and 20 percent of the undiscovered natural gas liquids in the world” (USGS Newsroom, “90 Billion Barrels of Oil and 1,670 Trillion Feet of Natural Gas Assessed in Arctic”). The USGS estimate of 90 billion barrels of oil would be valued, even at a modest $35 per barrel, at $3.15 trillion! It is no wonder that Canada, Russia and others are in a hurry to lay claim to a portion of this wealth. While many consider these resources too expensive to secure, at current oil prices, further instability in the Middle East, Russia or Ukraine leading to a spike in the cost of oil or natural gas could thrust these deposits into even greater limelight.
With such valuable resources at stake and any U.N. resolution at least a decade away, is there any doubt nations will seek other means to establish dominance over the north? While many focus on Russia’s aggressive actions in the Ukraine, Georgia and now into the Middle East in Syria, few have noticed the emphasis being placed on increasing military capabilities in the north. Exerting power in the Arctic has been a priority for Russian president Vladimir Putin. Last March, Putin “oversaw the largest Arctic war games ever: 35,000 Russian troops, 50 surface ships and submarines along with 110 aircraft” (CBC News, “Forget Syria, Russia’s Muscle is Moving Closer to Canada’s Doorstep”). He has recently set up an “Arctic Joint Strategic Command North, consisting of two motorized brigades and Pantsir-S1 anti-air missiles. Moscow is also constructing four Arctic outpost bases as well as airfields and new radar stations” (ibid.). Gryzlov’s proclamation of Russia as “the leader in conquering the Arctic” has suddenly become much more relevant.