Why Venezuela’s student protesters have already won

But rather than negotiate, the government increased repression in ways that are emblematic of the rule that has taken hold of Venezuela since the mid-2000s. The days when ordinary citizens would go out into the street to defend this government are gone. Instead, Maduro has deployed disproportionate coercive force against the students, relying on official military groups as well as unofficial, nonuniformed paramilitaries who ride around on motorcycles intimidating protesters and bystanders.

The state also intensified the country’s media blackout, even briefly expelling reporters from CNN en Español, proving to the world that this government has little regard for freedom of information. It has made no cabinet or policy changes, but rather simply dug in.

Finally, the government made a fool of itself by labeling the student movement with disparaging and ill-fitting language — it called the protesters “fascists” — demonstrating that even at the level of discourse, it remains disconnected from reality. Yes, Maduro is offering to hold “peace dialogues,” but so far has shown little sign of making any concessions, rendering his overture to the opposition less than credible.

It could very well be that this is as far as the protests in Venezuela will go. Maduro’s government may survive. Unlike what happened to Hosni Mubarak in Egypt in 2011 and to Viktor Yanukovychin Ukraine this past week, Maduro has not seen major defections from his military and leading legislators. Only one governor from the ruling party has publicly distanced himself from the repression. Such cohesion at the top is generally a good sign for the survival of a regime. Maduro might get away with leaving his cabinet, and his policy positions, intact.

But this does not mean the protests have failed. Rather, they have succeeded in showing the world what kind of creature this revolution really is, revealing its true instincts. With that alone, the Venezuelan protests have done their nation a great favor — even if the students feel they have not accomplished much at all.

Javier Corrales is the John E. Kirkpatrick professor of political science at Amherst College. He is writing a second edition of his co-authored book “Dragon in the Tropics: Hugo Chávez and the Political Economy of Revolution in Venezuela.”

Article Appeared @http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-venezuelas-student-protesters-have-already-won/2014/02/28/b4f94d2a-a009-11e3-9ba6-800d1192d08b_story.html?hpid=z3

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